Friday April 28 Potential

Friday morning update --- Sitting this one out today. Felt too far a drive for best potential -- although kinematics/thermodynamics look good, I'm afraid storms would fire too early/perhaps too extenstively, thus complicating discrete supercell/tornado potential later this afternoon. For kicks, my virtual target is Abilene to San Angelo, TX or generally between the I-10/I-20 corridor. Otherwise, bring on the rain in Norman!
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As of Wednesday evening, I'm contemplating a potential chase into Texas on Friday April 28. Current model runs suggest decent potential for supercells/possible tornadoes across west/west central TX. Two days out, I'd roughly think the Abilene area. If the situation appears borderline and/or further southwest etc., I'll likely 'conserve resources' for later in May. More thoughts later.

Thursday April 6

Heading back to Okie today, so opportunity to chase on the way back avails itself. Although heading west on I-70 through the KC area is an option, I'm leaning toward making the most of the I-44 option/logistics across sw MO and se KS/ne OK. Will be able to look at data on the way, making a choice around midday.

Sunday April 2

Based in Valpo, there's a good chance I'll chase to the west on Sunday, perhaps with the VUSIT folks. Although a northwest/west central IL target would be preferable, I do think there's a possibility that the primary/discrete supercell development may largely be confined to MO and perhaps extreme southern IA. I'm concerned that the n/ne extent of the warm sector across northern into central IL during the day may be hampered by morning convection -- currently pushing into western portions of IA/MO at midnight. With that said, the surface low will be deepening/advancing NE toward Lake Michigan, a positive for the warm front lifting north across central IL provided the early convection diminishes by midday. Otherwise, the parameter space/mode appears sufficiently favorable for tornadic supercells. Appears storm motions will roughly be to the ENE at ~40 kts. With logistics etc. in mind, my target leaning is Quincy to Jacksonville, IL. The good thing... an extra hour of daylight! :)