Monday May 30

Matt, Gregg, John and I are currently at the Super 8 in Trinidad, CO this morning (along I-25 in southern Colorado). We left Garden City, KS yesterday morning to play the developing upslope along/just north of the frontal boundary in far southeast CO/far northeast NM. We said goodbye to "Meso Ed" in Garden City -- was nice to have him with us on Saturday. From west of Boise City, OK and the Black Mesa area, we watched cells initially develop roughly along the CO/NM border from Springfield, CO area westward during the early/mid afternoon. Seeing this multicellular development die/congeal amidst the marginal shear, we eventually decided to bust west to play any development off the higher terrain near Trinidad, CO/Raton, NM (closer to our original target). Having rather limited road options, we had to go to Clayton, NM and then northwest to Des Moines, NM. As we headed northwest out of Clayton, we had a nice/distant vantage of a cell around/east of the Raton Mesa. The cell would soon merge with another supercell moving off the higher terrain near Trinidad. We'd eventually encounter a couple of inch hail drifts several miles east of Trinidad -- the hail had probably fell an hour or so earlier.

In regards to today (Monday), I am fairly optimistic for supercells and possibly a few tornadoes around this area. We tentatively plan to drift east out of Trinidad, or possibly eastward out of Raton. Road options again are VERY limited. Would expect us to spend much of the afternoon east of the Raton Mesa near Trinchera/Branson and maybe eventually into the Kim, CO area.

As an aside, nice to see the area/terrain around here with various mesas/mountains and old volcanoes. Coming into Trinidad last night, was also nice to reminisce about where we'd seen a
tornado in 2001 just east of Trinidad.

Tuesday looks to find us in the TX Panhandle.

Sunday May 29

In short, we watched the tornado warned storm near Atwood, KS (northwest KS) quickly become outflow dominant. Outflow/shelf cloud reached us as we watched the storm from several miles NW of Colby. Additional development really struggled across eastern CO/western KS in the marginal moisture/instability scenario.

May 28 Storm Reports

We stayed/are currently in Garden City, KS. At expense of sounding like a broken record, expectations are not overly high. Nevertheless, a fair shot at supercells today. It seems we are generally in a good spot -- will likely play se CO/far ne NM/sw KS corridor later today.

On Monday, it appears we might again be in se CO/ne NM area per upslope and supercell potential. Tuesday will then likely be further south into the TX panhandle.

Saturday May 28

Plans are to play the quasi-stationary/warm frontal boundary near the Nebraska-Kansas state line on Saturday. Some secondary concern for storms in se CO/ne NM into southwest KS, but the aforementioned scenario seems to be our best chance. Again, expectations are not high given limited moisture/questionable mode, however we can hopefully intercept some decent storms/supercells prior to eventual MCS development. Will be nice to have "Meso Ed" along for a rendezvous. Given the progged frontal movement, Sunday will bring us a couple of hundred miles south -- time will tell, probably somewhere in a se CO/ne NM through southern KS/northern OK corridor.

Friday May 27 and Weekend

I can't believe how dull the pattern is for late May! We have decided to sit out today (May 27) given the distance and the expected scenario -- being possibility for a few supercells in eastern New Mexico. We will chase tomorrow and Sunday (May 28+29) in an effort to "make the best of it", but expectations are far from high. The way things are going, I'd settle for supercell structure similar to what we saw Monday/Tuesday in Colorado. Initial target area would be upslope in se CO/ne NM and possibly into sw KS, with perhaps additional consideration along the boundary in west central/north central KS. Hartman will join up with us later tonight. After this weekend, latest model guidance suggests another ominous southward frontal plunge late Sunday into Monday. So, seemingly Sat/Sun could very well be it for us, but we'll hold onto hopes for an opportunity lingering into Monday.

May 25 Summary and May 26/May 27

Cold front won out today. Saw decent supercell structure for a time this afternoon with development across northeast NM (Raton-Las Vegas-Clayton corridor), but cold front kept surging south and undercutting the storms. Ended up as far south as Tecumcari watching additional development along the front.

We are now back in Norman for 24-48 hours. Frontal surge S/SW across eastern NM will keep bulk of stronger activity relegated to the higher terrain on Thursday. We may (50/50?) head back out to eastern NM/far southeast CO for upslope play as early as Friday -- most certainly will by Saturday.

May 25 Target

It appears we'll be chasing near the se CO/ne NM border on Wednesday, more likely in ne NM given potential impact of ongoing MCS ongoing across se CO/sw KS. Pre-morning target is Trinidad, CO to Clayton, NM. Similar to previous couple of days, tornado prospects appear to be slim, but decent chances for supercells before MCS evolves/moves southeastward during the evening.

May 24 Summary

Storm Reports
Pictures

We left Burlington, CO late this morning for Yuma, CO for lunch and data reassessment. Outflow boundary from early morning MCS was to our south, while mid level convection was ongoing at midday just south of the NE/CO border. Similar to Monday, we expected tornado prospects to be slim, but thought supercells might be a little more prevalent before storm mergers/MCS development. Tornado watch issued by early afternoon for NE CO as we headed west out of Yuma. With storms developing all around us to the west/northwest, we would ultimately watch a tornado warned cell northwest of Otis, CO for almost an hour. Much as was the case on Monday, storms would exhibit supercell-type characteristics for a period of time before becoming outflow dominant in relatively short order.

Some of the highlights... watching the developing shelf/arcus structure (e.g. Otis/Yuma/Eckley corridor) was a treat. We were nearly struck by a sizeable tree limb (outflow) as we went through the east side of Otis (tornado sirens blaring). Was like slow motion... could see it coming all the way and was able to avoid it as it landed in the road ahead of us. We got out ahead of the of the clustering storms for a while, with good vantage (see pics) of the developing shelf.

A while later as we (and the merging clusters) headed eastward, we'd again be "smacked" by the outlfow while in extreme northwest KS heading southward on KS Hwy 27 (~5 NW St. Francis), including driving through 2 or 3 rather large/well-organized gustnadoes! This was certainly an "interesting" experience as our car got rocked with near zero visibility each time. As we continued southward through/south of Goodland, we kept an eye on "tail end Charlie" of the developing MCS in vicinity of Cheyenne Well, CO area. With plans to stay in Lamar, CO for Wednesday, we headed west out of Tribune, KS for the aforementioned storms. NWS Pueblo would soon issue a tornado warning from the storms north of Lamar shortly thereafter. Given little or no road options and dwindling sunlight, we stayed sufficiently east/southeast and headed southward to Holly, CO. Needing to get west to Lamar at some pint, we decided to punch the now severe-warned merged linear complex with developing/surging outflow. In short, we got "smacked" as we reached Grenada, CO. Given impossible driving conditions in driving rain/small hail and 50+ mph winds, we sought shelter under a shed in town. An amazing amount of rain in short order -- can only speculate on rates at our location, but we can relate to 3.70 inch/20 minutes rates that had been reported earlier per Pueblo Flash Flood Warning statement. In addition to many small branches down in town, we did see a larger (4 inch?) limb down in the road as we exited Grenada.

Staying in Lamar, CO tonight.

May 23 Summary

Storm Reports
Pictures
Compiled by Gregg G. and myself -- all times are in CDT:

Early morning severe thunderstorm provides pea size hail and heavy rain at the Guyer household in Norman at 5:45 am. We are on the road at 6:15 am heading for Limon CO, where based on new info we will decide either the northern or southern route in CO. After getting on I-70 near Salina…a kind police officer decided to get in the middle of the road and point at Jared. He wanted to have a casual chat with us. He asked what was going on…we said we were going to CO for some storm chasing. No ticket! He smiled and gave Jared a stern warning and said to enjoy the beauty of Kansas. WE WILL!

Large cell developed on Lake-Palmer Ridge and quickly went severe. Continued and got gas at Seibert CO -- we meet up with Bart and the Valpo crew. Sat and got gas, and data from Gregg’s DC friend and Valpo base support. Tor box issued (CO/NM border to 60 mi N of LBF). Cells start developing over us (just to west…nice based and development of hail shaft. While driving back to Burlington on I-70m very strong/impressive inflow (cross) winds (S) are leading to very strong dust advection into the storm behind us! This occurred around 5:00 PM obscuring views (visibilities of .5 to .25 miles). Over a 3 mile stretch through the dust the Tds went from 42F to 62F (mi. 434 on I70 – moist side). Went north out of Burlington and saw one cell to the west moving NE and the other directly ahead. Tornado warning for the one directly ahead. Started heading north quickly to get ahead of the western cell. Did but as we turned north western cell was dying. Good SSE flow into the “tornadic” cell. Lightning was nice and strong, but no rotation seen. Tor warning was re-issued again for Yuma county for a cell NW of the other. As the other was weakening, decided to head back west to see the new cell. There was a nice lowering and some weak rotation but nothing very impressive. This cell received too much cold air in its inflow and sheared out. New slow moving cells were developing to the west. Decided to go have some fun and park under it. Once the pea size hail was falling well, decided to head “home” to Burlington for the night (at 7:30 pm). All other cells are weak with little hope of svr. Stopped in Joes to chill…decided later to punch the core of hail storm to the east(about 8:15-8:30)… saw marble hail, then hail covering the road. Later some marble to dime size was falling. Got out of the hail and got to US385 South, where the storm caught us while we were going south. This time the hvy rain was accompanied by very small pea hail, but more impressive 50+mph wind gusts (9:05pm) with the outflow.

Total Mileage 735

Monday (May 23) Preliminary

Leaving Norman early in the morning to head for eastern Colorado to play the upslope regime over the next several days. Although Monday holds some promise for supercells, seemingly Tuesday/Wednesday feature a little more potential. Our initial target for Monday is Limon, CO.

Given it was "close to home", we did sit in northern OK Sunday mid/late afternoon hoping for some development along the stalled frontal boundary. Temperatures reached the upper 90s, with near 70 dewpoints across northcentral Oklahoma. However, nothing was to be had as the cap held strong with high-based/dry'ish updrafts struggling all afternoon. Talked to Bart who was in the PNC area with the Valpo crew.

Upcoming Vacation

Pattern looks to be rather quiet for at least the early part of next week owing to upper ridging. Current indications are that early week possible "plays" may only consist of the high plains of eastern CO or possibly northeast NM, and those would probably be a stretch for much beyond a few supercells. Certainly hope the upper ridge tempers by mid/late week with the pattern improving.

May 13 Chase

More pics coming soon...

Chased with: Jon Racy and Mark Darrow
Base Support: None
Target: Childress, TX to Altus, OK
Mileage: 510 miles

Storm Reports
Tornado Watch 269 / Tornado Watch 273 / Tornado Watch 274
SPC MD858 / MD864 / MD868 / MD871
KFDR Radar Loop (southernmost cell on radar)

Summary by Jon Racy: Jared Guyer, Mark Darrow and I had the day off and drove to Altus by 430pm. We were encouraged by the backed low-level flow into NW TX and mid 60s dew points/steep low-level lapse rates per the mesonet obs and SPC objective analyses, especially given the storm initiation south of CDS.

We intercepted the NE flank of the storm on US70 east of Crowell noting wicked anvil CGs and the rain-free base distant southwest. We made it to Rt 6 and blasted south, stopping several times between the Foard/Knox county line to Benjamin (tons of chaser convergence).

It was tough from our vantage point to see much in the way of low-level structure during most of the storm life cycle. But, between 625-630, we did view semi-interesting "clear slots" wrapping around apparent mesos...one just east of Rt 6 looking NE toward Benjamin and one due NW between Truscott/Benjamin. The westernmost feature quickly faded, but the eastern meso, producing a small funnel, became quickly wrapped in rain/hail with considerable brownish/red dust intermixed. Not sure that is what Gene/Jim saw, but at the time, we couldn't clearly indicate whether there was a rain-wrapped tornado there or not. It could have been a contrast thing from our vantage point.

Otherwise, the storm quickly became outflow dominant and we had a tough time staying ahead of the cold outflow. The outflow did produce several short-lived gustnadoes, looking south from Weinert and west of Throckmorton on RT 222/Rt6. We eventually got far enough south to view the front side of the supercell; exhibiting strong HP character with a broad sculpted shelf and jet black pcpn core off to the NW-N.

Interesting to note the obs of near 60F dew points vcnty this storm and probably partially explains the propensity for outflow domination. We wonder if the weakening deep layer shear in NW TX with time may have mitigated the tornado threat somewhat as well.

Also interesting to drive past the chase vehicles that were apparently damaged by the giant hail on FRI's PVW supercells. A lot of broken windshields and huge holes in the fiberglass shells! Yikes!



625 pm: Looking N/NW from south of Truscott, TX


629 pm: Looking N/NW from south of Truscott, TX


715 pm: Looking N from around Munday, TX

May 13 Chase Target

Things look to be coming together by late afternoon for supercells with some tornado threat from west OK into far northwest TX. Will likely be leaving Norman early this afternoon -- initial target is Altus, OK to Childress, TX corridor along outflow boundary from early morning convection.

May 11 Chase, May 12 No-Go, and May 13

Yesterday (Wed May 11) was a bust. Watched TCU across the cental/eastern TX Panhandle (stopped around McLean) wane by late afternoon with dryline retreating west. Not even a storm... ugh!
Storm Reports

Will probably chase later today (Thur May 12), namely given proximity factor. Hopefully the progged convection along/north of frontal zone during the morning/midday doesn't cause too much havoc. I'll throw out an initial target of Shamrock, TX.
EDIT: Ended up not chasing today. As I feared, front oozed a little too far south with convection breaking out early across the TX Panhandle. Ongoing supercells with a few tornado reports in the Lubbock area as I update , but ultimately decided at midday too far a haul for questionable scenario.

May 13 -- Some possibility for a nearby chase, but another rather questionable scenario along cold front. Doubtful for a chase at this point.

May 11 Chase Target

I'm going to play the closer-to-home southern/dryline option today. I think there could be a sweet spot across far sw KS into the OK/nrn TX Panhandles around 00z. 12z ETA/RUC suggest 40-50 kt mid-level swly flow should be flirting with that corridor by late this afternoon. Reasonably confident there'll be supercells given the instability/modest shear. High bases/marginal low level shear should tend to limit the tornado threat, but I can see a shot before dark with the increasing sly LLJ and/or modification of early morning convective debris across the TX Panhandle.

My preliminary target is Perryton, TX.

Next Chase?

Next chase potential for me will be in the May 10-12 timeframe. As of Friday afternoon... medium range consensus suggests next upper trough to advance through the Rockies early next week. Even better, this looks to be first shot of some higher quality theta-e into the Plains. Especially with any delay in progged timing of upper trough, my current expectations are that initial activity Tuesday/10th will probably be confined to the high plains, with eastward potential into the Plains Wed 11th/Thur 12th.