Tuesday May 13 Chase

Early morning thoughts -- I'm planning to chase in OK later today, most likely within an hour or two of central OK. My expectation is for isolated to scattered supercells to develop along/east of a cold front and intersecting dryline later this afternoon/early evening. The morning observed sounding from Norman exhibited a stout elevated mixed layer/cap, however sufficient boundary layer converge and surface heating should lead to at least isolated storm development later today. Experimental 4km WRF-NMM and 4km WRF-NSSL models both lead credence toward central OK initiation, with each model developing a supercell or two near the OKC metro by around 00z. Given the 71F dewpoint and 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the Dallas-Fort Worth 12z raob, it would appear there is a good shot at upper 60s F dewpoints into central OK. With the strong instability and good deep layer shear, the conditional potential for supercells is high -- it's just a matter of initiation, and the extent thereof. I'm not particularly high on well-sustained tornadoes given the initially modest low level flow, with weaknesses likely from the surface through 2-3 km per model soundings. However, there is certainly some tornado threat, along with the potential for very large hail.