Fri May 30 / Sat May 31
Didn't see much to speak of in southeast KS Friday afternoon/evening, although we were treated to nice lightning show after dark.
Leaving from southeast KS (Independence), our initial target is the Medicine Lodge-Wellington-Alva-Enid corridor for today. This would be a play on the outflow reinforced stalled front and associated west-east oriented moist/instability axis near the KS/OK border. Looks like it should heat up quickly across northwest TX/western OK this afternoon, and I'm envisioning deeply mixed/high based cu intercepting this west-east boundary(ies) somewhere in the aforementioned corridor mid/late afternoon. Overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment looks good for supercells, with 40 kt westerly mid level flow and nice veering profiles. I expect a few tornadoes and like the theoretically favorable storm motions parallel to the boundary, however in the contrary it seems like there'll be some pre-sunset weakness in the lowest 1 km with respect to well-sustained tornadoes. Although the boundary layer will deeply mix to the southwest, given seemingly limited large scale support, I do have a slight worry about CI much before dark given some mid level warmth -- slightly afraid of a scenario whether most of the development is late (toward dark) north of the boundary in a redeveloping WAA regime.
We'll likely head north into Nebraska/South Dakota/Iow for Sunday/Monday.
Leaving from southeast KS (Independence), our initial target is the Medicine Lodge-Wellington-Alva-Enid corridor for today. This would be a play on the outflow reinforced stalled front and associated west-east oriented moist/instability axis near the KS/OK border. Looks like it should heat up quickly across northwest TX/western OK this afternoon, and I'm envisioning deeply mixed/high based cu intercepting this west-east boundary(ies) somewhere in the aforementioned corridor mid/late afternoon. Overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment looks good for supercells, with 40 kt westerly mid level flow and nice veering profiles. I expect a few tornadoes and like the theoretically favorable storm motions parallel to the boundary, however in the contrary it seems like there'll be some pre-sunset weakness in the lowest 1 km with respect to well-sustained tornadoes. Although the boundary layer will deeply mix to the southwest, given seemingly limited large scale support, I do have a slight worry about CI much before dark given some mid level warmth -- slightly afraid of a scenario whether most of the development is late (toward dark) north of the boundary in a redeveloping WAA regime.
We'll likely head north into Nebraska/South Dakota/Iow for Sunday/Monday.
posted by Jared Guyer at 11:07 AM
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