Wednesday June 6 and Thursday June 7
Although I'm off the next two days, I think I'm going to sit out chasing today to the north. Certainly a rather strong "dynamic" system for June, but timing/degree of boundary layer moisture and warm temperatures aloft/capping are concerns, especially with south extent. Although SD/northern NEB is a higher probability scenario, was hoping there'd be a potential play in southern NEB and northern KS. There very well may be still, but 00z/06z based deterministic models, high res/4km WRF runs, and latest SREF guidance all suggest development south of I-80 in NEB will be pretty rogue in nature. Although Will keep an eye on observational trends and take a look at 12z guidance to see if I can be suckered out the door, but doubtful at this point.
I may give northeast OK/southeast KS a shot on Thursday. Wouldn't have high expectations given the departing system etc., but the relatively close-to-home aspect is appealing.
I may give northeast OK/southeast KS a shot on Thursday. Wouldn't have high expectations given the departing system etc., but the relatively close-to-home aspect is appealing.
posted by Jared Guyer at 7:50 AM
1 Comments:
Hey Guyer... A few of us here in the office have similar issues. We were thinking about heading out towards Bismarck, but decided to stay in Grand Forks for the day. It'd probably turn into a long drive only to see mostly nocturnal convection. The H70 temps remain pretty toasty through this afternoon, so I wouldn't expect anything down there until well after 00z. We're all hoping to get dry-slotted tomorrow to allow for some broken sunshine to bring some scattered SVR potential to the valley. If we head out tomorrow afternoon, we'll likely head east into Minnesota. Nice to see that MDT out there today, though! Thanks! ;)
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