Saturday April 21 Update
My late Friday thoughts:
Will be heading to the TX panhandle with Jon Racy, Jeff Peters, and visiting John S. on Saturday. Would certainly like to see better moisture profiles, but T-Td spreads should be OK if we can keep middle/maybe upper 50s F dewpoints in the eastern TX panhandle. My tornadic expectations aren't overly high, but I expect some tornadoes before linear forcing overwhelms during the evening. We have thrown around various targets within a corridor between AMA and LBB... seems like it is an issue of stronger forcing/faster storm motions farther north (north of AMA) vs. more discrete development/slightly warmer profiles/higher bases farther south (south of LBB). Will say an initial target of Turkey, TX -- virtual chase cam/positioning will be running on my website.
Morning thoughts from Jon Racy:
Both SPC runs of the WRF-NMM and WRF-NSSL suggest discrete cells will be possible in the TX pnhdl. Various reasons this could end up panning out: pre-dryline initiation before primary wall of ascent arrives, lagged time of the strongly backing mid-level flow assocd with the primary H5 low etc. WRFs signal of lwr 60s dew point pockets may be too high in the ern Pnhdl, thinking mid-upper 50s. There will probably be a sweet spot in there, probably just southeast of AMA (sound familiar).
Will be heading to the TX panhandle with Jon Racy, Jeff Peters, and visiting John S. on Saturday. Would certainly like to see better moisture profiles, but T-Td spreads should be OK if we can keep middle/maybe upper 50s F dewpoints in the eastern TX panhandle. My tornadic expectations aren't overly high, but I expect some tornadoes before linear forcing overwhelms during the evening. We have thrown around various targets within a corridor between AMA and LBB... seems like it is an issue of stronger forcing/faster storm motions farther north (north of AMA) vs. more discrete development/slightly warmer profiles/higher bases farther south (south of LBB). Will say an initial target of Turkey, TX -- virtual chase cam/positioning will be running on my website.
Morning thoughts from Jon Racy:
Both SPC runs of the WRF-NMM and WRF-NSSL suggest discrete cells will be possible in the TX pnhdl. Various reasons this could end up panning out: pre-dryline initiation before primary wall of ascent arrives, lagged time of the strongly backing mid-level flow assocd with the primary H5 low etc. WRFs signal of lwr 60s dew point pockets may be too high in the ern Pnhdl, thinking mid-upper 50s. There will probably be a sweet spot in there, probably just southeast of AMA (sound familiar).
posted by Jared Guyer at 9:09 AM
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