Friday, April 20, 2007

Saturday April 21 and Monday April 23

It is highly likely I'll be chasing the southern high plains on Saturday. As mentioned previously, the quality of boundary layer is of concern -- only lower 60s F dewpoints on the southeast TX coastal plain as of Friday morning. Nevertheless, with relatively cool temperatures in the 70s F, temp-dewpoint spreads shouldn't be overly high, and kinematic profiles certainly appear favorable for supercells and some tornadoes otherwise. While a broad North-South severe extent may occur, my current thinking 24-36 hrs out is to head I-40 west toward Amarillo and go from there. For the virtual chaser, the "floating head" and other techno gadgetry will be active.

Will also monitor Monday, April 23 for chase potential. However, model interrogations from the previous couple of days had me thinking that convective initiation would be probably be too far west (eastern NM/far west TX?) and/or too late (with respect to daylight) on Monday given the expected timing of the upper trough through the southwest states. I'm N/A for Tuesday, April 24.

3 Comments:

Blogger Ed said...

Good luck brother. The first chase of the season is always an interesting one.

9:50 AM  
Blogger Matthew K. Hartman said...

I second that, Ed... Good luck, Guyer. Tomorrow looks fairly interesting in Western KS - all kinds of instability and with modest low-level shear, maybe a few tornadoes! I'd love to be sitting in Syracuse or Tribune tomorrow afternoon... We had our first SVR tonight! Posted that over on the WxBlog. Yep, it's been resurrected...

12:53 AM  
Blogger Matthew K. Hartman said...

http://gw.mhartman-wx.com -- by the way...

12:53 AM  

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