Wed Night 2/28 and Thur 3/1
Well, I feel I should chime-in with something... It certainly feels spring-like with the nature of the cumuliform clouds outside and surface dewpoints nosing into the upper 50's F (57 F as I write this). Because of obligations at the National Severe Weather Workshop and work tomorrow, it's unlikely I'll consider any sort of organized chase late this afternoon/early evening in central OK. There is some potential for convective initiation near/just northeast of here before dark, but the timing, speed of movement, and other logistics will lead me to sit this one out. After all, it is still February!
I won't go into any great detail, but it'll certainly be interesting to see how things play out with higher-end severe potential late tonight and Thursday. A pretty impressive dynamical system with strong winds both aloft and in the low levels, coupled with pretty good moisture return (upper 60s F dewpoints along the se TX coastal plain as of 18z Wed) and sufficient instability it would appear. Seems like there's respectable possibility for (strong?) tornadoes late this evening/overnight as storms develop from se KS/e OK into s MO/AR. A higher-end potential then spreads into the mid-south/Ohio Valley and southeast states on Thursday, although marginal moisture (namely north extent) and likelihood of ongoing storms in the morning makes the details a little murky yet.
For more details that what I'm going to provide on here, I trust these folks... :)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Jared
I won't go into any great detail, but it'll certainly be interesting to see how things play out with higher-end severe potential late tonight and Thursday. A pretty impressive dynamical system with strong winds both aloft and in the low levels, coupled with pretty good moisture return (upper 60s F dewpoints along the se TX coastal plain as of 18z Wed) and sufficient instability it would appear. Seems like there's respectable possibility for (strong?) tornadoes late this evening/overnight as storms develop from se KS/e OK into s MO/AR. A higher-end potential then spreads into the mid-south/Ohio Valley and southeast states on Thursday, although marginal moisture (namely north extent) and likelihood of ongoing storms in the morning makes the details a little murky yet.
For more details that what I'm going to provide on here, I trust these folks... :)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Jared
posted by Jared Guyer at 1:36 PM
1 Comments:
I tell you... the SDS is hitting me hard today. Woke up this morning seeing the linear rolls put the wind shear on display. Now the warm front has mixed through the area, blown my forecast, and I'm drooling over 300+ 0-1km SRH to the south. Too bad most of it is going to be nocturnal.
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