Tuesday May 9 and Monday Recap (resend)

Chasing today in Oklahoma. Although somewhat shallow, morning observed soundings from Norman/Dallas Fort Worth suggest current upper 60s F dewpoints may be maintained across southern/eastern OK. Background characteristics are favorable via very steep mid level lapse rates already in place, and evolution of upper trough and adequate westerlies aloft/wind fields for supercells. Will have to have to see what current outflow boundary extending in central OK does. Certainly has a chance to "cook", and orientation would seemingly be favorable given expected storm motions later this afternoon. In all, supercells with large hail/isolated tornado potential appears likely late this afternoon/early evening. Probably below average confidence in a specific target as of mid morning, but initial leaning is to sit just south/east of the OKC metro later this afternoon, with a leaning toward south central OK via heat-aided triple point. Terrain/trees are a logistical complication across the eastern 1/3 or 1/4 of OK.

On Monday, chased into southwest/west central Kansas. Fairly unproductive for us, with development well west/north of us along the dryline and cold front with evolution into an MCS by early evening across western KS. Made it as far west as 25 E of Dodge City before deciding to head back to the OKC area.

The next few days seem pretty quiet, with down days likely. I suppose there is a small chance we might do a "hail mary" into the flatter/less tree dense portions of MS on Wednesday, but unlikely given the scenario/logistics.