Monday May 8 and Rest of Week

Sunday evening update... with tempered expecations, John M. and I planning to chase on Monday. Initial inclinations are somewhere from far northwest/north central OK into central KS... say along a Woodward/Enid OK to Great Bend/Hutchinson KS corridor. Mid level flow increases with northward extent. It appears the dryline could also try and go across western OK. Curious to see what tonight's convection does and if there are any outflow boundaries in play. Don't feel comfortable with any particular target at this point.

I'm still pretty optimistic about Tuesday, likely in OK -- will be chasing with Gregg arriving around midday. Wednesday may not be out of the question either in TX, pending the hostility of the cold front. Otherwise, the pattern does not look particularly great through the end of the week. All relative, but best hope is for subtle ridging/modest central plains surface high, with the front hanging up along the Rio Grande. That should at least provide an opportunity for a few days of upslope supercell plays across southwest TX/far eastern NM, perhaps as early as Thursday.