March 8 Chase Target

Will be chasing today. My initial target is Lawton in southwest OK.

It appears there will be adequate insolation/mixing near the dryline such that I believe there's a good chance at least isolated storms pre-dark today across west/southwest OK into north TX. I think development would remain sufficiently discreet given the forcing/orientation with kinematics otherwise favorable for supercells. RUC/NAM progs of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appear reasonable. Although initially marginal, low level shear should increase toward 00z largely owing to surface cyclogenesis and LLJ increase -- this scenario is supported by the latest RUC's suggestion of backing south/perhaps even southeast surface winds across southwest OK by early evening. Especially if low 60s F dewpoints are maintained, would stand to reason there is a fair tornado threat. Storms will be moving at a pretty good clip -- forecast Bunkers suggest 30 kts or greater. Looks like a significant severe threat will continue through the night into the ARKLATEX.