May 11 Chase Target

I'm going to play the closer-to-home southern/dryline option today. I think there could be a sweet spot across far sw KS into the OK/nrn TX Panhandles around 00z. 12z ETA/RUC suggest 40-50 kt mid-level swly flow should be flirting with that corridor by late this afternoon. Reasonably confident there'll be supercells given the instability/modest shear. High bases/marginal low level shear should tend to limit the tornado threat, but I can see a shot before dark with the increasing sly LLJ and/or modification of early morning convective debris across the TX Panhandle.

My preliminary target is Perryton, TX.